I think you are making some bad assumptions.

A few comments

1. It is hard to use any sort of national average as there are large differences. FL has a net influx of people while NY state largely does not (strip out NYC to really show the trends).

2. Jacksonville FL has areas that are not going to be desirable even with a growing population. Naples is not even close in comparison.

3. You can look at the historical numbers for Naples. You can get the info from the county or from the local Realtor board. You will need to adjust for the property type. You also need to understand how often people have been improving or expanding the properties in the sample if you want to compare apples to apples. Even then it will less than perfect.

Here is an alternative suggestion. Focus on what the market prices seem to be now for the areas that have your attention. Then hunt really hard for a seller who wants out more than they care about the price. Even in a hot or rising market their can be deals from sellers who have other problems to solve. Solve their problem and you can largely name your price (relatively speaking).

If you can buy 1 property that is 20% or 30% below the present market levels you have room for the market to cool before it impacts you.

There are other factors at work. Are you going to live there or is this a rental? Can you lease option a place and live there for a long period of time before needing to purchase?

Note I have been a RE investor for over 20 years with experience in many market in and outside the US. There are peaks and valleys. Gain an advantage by doing better homework but do not assume that there is a correct level of appreciation because historically it was somehow lower. Look at the demographics when trying to predict where things are heading.